Andy Reid Must Go
There’s really not much I can say here. I didn’t get to watch the game. I just watched the highlights and read a couple articles on philly.com. But I think I know enough to understand that Andy Reid should be fired at the end of this season. He’s a stubborn bastard and he’s too stupid to realize that this isn’t 2004 anymore. His team isn’t like 2004′s. His quarterback isn’t like 2004′s. The competition isn’t like 2004′s. Only Andy Reid is trapped there, living off his 4 trips to the NFC championship game. Hopefully, Lurie realizes this and has the stones to actually change the direction of this team. Since the Super Bowl, the Eagles are a half game over .500. This is not progress. This is a team stuck in neutral. Yes, there have been injuries. Find me a team where there are no injuries. Yes, the level of our division has been improving. Again, things move in cycles. Except here, where things move like pennies through Joe Banner’s bony claws: not at all.
Let’s look at some fun tables:
Here’s what it looks like what you sort the Eagles games by number of rushes. Hey wait, all the wins come to the top.
| Game | Opponent | Time of Possession | Number of Rushes | Number of Plays | W-L |
| 13 | Giants | 34:54:00 | 42 | 72 | W |
| 12 | Cardinals | 39:33:00 | 40 | 79 | W |
| 14 | Browns | 37:55:00 | 33 | 71 | W |
| 1 | Rams | 35:10:00 | 32 | 71 | W |
| 7 | Falcons | 32:21:00 | 32 | 66 | W |
| 8 | Seahawks | 37:15:00 | 28 | 71 | W |
| 2 | Cowboys | 30:58:00 | 23 | 60 | L |
| 3 | Steelers | 32:34:00 | 23 | 61 | W |
| 4 | Bears | 31:54:00 | 23 | 64 | L |
| 6 | 49ers | 26:41:00 | 21 | 57 | W |
| 9 | Giants | 20:50 | 21 | 57 | L |
| 11 | Ravens | 26:39:00 | 21 | 62 | L |
| 5 | Redskins | 25:15:00 | 18 | 47 | L |
| 10 | Bengals | 26:20:00 | 18 | 76 | T |
| 15 | Redskins | 26:46:00 | 16 | 62 | L |
And hey, look here. When you sort by time of possession, the same thing happens. What a coincidence.
| Game | Opponent | Time of Possession | Number of Rushes | Number of Plays | W-L |
| 12 | Cardinals | 39:33 | 40 | 79 | W |
| 14 | Browns | 37:55 | 33 | 71 | W |
| 8 | Seahawks | 37:15 | 28 | 71 | W |
| 1 | Rams | 35:10 | 32 | 71 | W |
| 13 | Giants | 34:54 | 42 | 72 | W |
| 3 | Steelers | 32:34 | 23 | 61 | W |
| 7 | Falcons | 32:21 | 32 | 66 | W |
| 4 | Bears | 31:54 | 23 | 64 | L |
| 2 | Cowboys | 30:58 | 23 | 60 | L |
| 15 | Redskins | 26:46 | 16 | 62 | L |
| 6 | 49ers | 26:41 | 21 | 57 | W |
| 10 | Bengals | 26:40 | 18 | 76 | T |
| 11 | Ravens | 26:39 | 21 | 62 | L |
| 5 | Redskins | 25:15 | 18 | 47 | L |
| 9 | Giants | 20:50 | 21 | 57 | L |
So it looks like running the ball and time of possession make a difference. Looking back, sacks didn’t make a huge difference across the board (did you know that the Giants totaled exactly zero sacks against us this year?) Turnovers and turnover margin had a decent correlation, but not like rushing (although you look back at the Bears game by the numbers and it makes you want to drive around with heroin and a loaded gun in your car.)
Rushing the ball wins games. Or teams that win games rush the ball. Let’s look inside those numbers a little. Looking at rushing attempts, I see two playoff teams that don’t/can’t run the ball for shit, Indy and Arizona. The top 10 has 8 likely playoff teams: Baltimore, Atlanta, Minnesota, Tennessee, Giants, Carolina, New England, Washington, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville. Same goes for the yards per game where you replace Jacksonville and Pittsburgh with the Jets and Raiders. Where do the Eagles land on these lists? 19th in attempts and 22nd in yards per game. So there’s that.
Let’s turn the tables: who are the best passing teams? In yards per game, it reads New Orleans, Arizona, Denver, Houston, Indy, Philly, San Diego, Dallas, Green Bay and Miami (what?!?). I count two playoff teams by default (Cards and AFC West winner) along with the Colts and maybe Dolphins. So how about attempts? You can add in Jacksonville, Tampa and New England and take out San Diego, Green Bay and Miami. Eagles are #4 in attempts.
You know what makes this even worse? The Eagles’ completion percentage of 60.4% puts them 19th in the league. Yards per attempt is 6.78, again 19th. YPA is a very good barometer for shit teams. From the bottom, it goes Bengals, Browns, Seahawks, Raiders, Bears, Chiefs, Rams, Titans (uh oh) and Lions. Team passer rating? We’re looking at 22nd. Ints? 26th. I’m sure if you take out the Bengals and Ravens games, those two numbers look a lot better, but that’s not the purpose of today’s exercise. The purpose is to show that we’re a pass happy team that isn’t very good at passing because everyone knows its coming. You know why Philip Rivers put up ridiculous numbers this year? Because every defense keys on LT, even though he’s got less life in his legs than Heather Mills.
Other numbers to vomit on: Eagles are the 6th highest scoring team with the 9th best scoring defense. Our turnover margin is 0. We’ve forced more punts than any other team and have the fourth best net return against.
Overall, this season has to rank up there as one of the bigger disappointments of Big Red’s tenure. They’ve looked as good as any team all season (Giants, Cardinals)…and they’ve looked as bad as the worst teams in big games (Bengals, Ravens, Redskinsx2). The frightening thing is that the best games and the worst games ride the numbers on rushing attempts so perfectly that to deny them is to show blatant ignorance in a town that has no patience for it. Yet that is exactly what Andy has done. And that is why he should go. Leave Donovan. Leave Jim Johnson.
Fire Andy.
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December 22nd, 2008 at 8:14 am
If you listen to blowjob Howard Eskin, he’ll say that the reason good teams have high rushing numbers is because they are winning in most of their games and they use the run as a way to keep the clock moving and decrease the possibility of turnovers. Teams that are losing are often behind in their games and tend to pass more to get down the field quicker.
Now, I don’t have the numbers, but this would seem to be partially true in theory. What would be interesting is to see the team’s numbers when the game is tied or they’re within 7 points of their opponent. Those are games when it’s close and pass/run balance should probably be with 60/40 either direction.
I would think that successful teams use the run to make their passing better (and not vice versa). Do you think any team that sees the Eagles pass the ball FIFTEEN straight times like they did yesterday actually bites on a fucking play action at any point after that? Seriously. Teams don’t even flinch when they play action anymore. Why waste the half second it takes to go through the motions?