City of Pain

which is very different than my initial thought when i heard that the phils had offered the man $50 mil over 4 years. my thinking was “he’s old, this year was a fluke, and you’re paying the world series mvp tax (which is nowhere near as misguided as paying the super bowl mvp tax).”

the numbers say i’m wrong. let’s look at mike lowell vs. everyone’s favorite injury risk, aaron rowand (especially in regards to yearly statistics that throw off your perception of a player). thanks to the nerds at baseball america for the numbers. i’m considering lowell over the last seven and rowand over the last four. i don’t have the patience to find out why rowand’s AB’s were so low prior (platoon or injuries, i think)

rbi’s: a very important stat for your 5-6 hitter especially when they’re needed for protection and when you have some relatively high OBP players in front.

Lowell: 80 RBI’s or higher, 6 out of 7 years (high of 120 in ’07)
Rowand: 80 RBI’s or higher, 1 out of 4 years (high of 89 in ’07)

um…lowell wins

average/obp/slugging: average is a garbage stat for the most part, overvaluing players who don’t really help score runs (the whole point of baseball)

it’s a wash.

strikeouts and walks: we all cringe at how often the phillies strike out. it’s sickening. aaron rowand happens to be a big culprit. he struck out 119 times last season and lowell struck out 71 times (in 30 less at bats…yawn) . lowell averages north of 50 walks a year, rowand more around 30. i would guess he drew a career high in walks last year because 1) dude was having a pretty nice season and b) the law firm of helms, dobbs and nunez does not exactly strike fear into the hearts of pitchers.

lowell wins.

fielding: they’re both pretty good (a gold glove apiece). lowell is the all-time leader in fielding percentage by a third baseman. and he’s not likely to use his face to break his fall any time soon. (interesting fact that could become very relevant: best zone rating for a 3b last year…everyone’s favorite free agent pedro feliz)

lowell wins.

attytood/clubhouse factor: lowell has two world series rings. rowand has one. roward has two balls. lowell has one. from everything i can read, they’re both good guys who are perfect for the phillies clubhouse chemistry.
it’s a push.

so paying a three years older mike lowell $12.5 mil per sounds a lot better than paying a oft-injured aaron rowand $14 mil per, doesn’t it?

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