City of Pain

And now, a warm City of Pain welcome to Geoff with a G and his unique way with words…

So, the playoff picture is as clear as a bullet riddled window in a West Philly convenience store…

Here is my best attempt at breaking down the playoff picture and where the Phillies stand at this point…good luck understanding this as you read it, because I sure as hell did not understand it when I was writing it.

As I see it, there are five scenarios that could play out:
1. Beat out the Mets and win the NL East (host a playoff series against the Central winner)
2. Play even with the Mets and lose the wildcard
3. Play even with the Mets and tie for the Wild Card with one of the West teams (Phillies would win the NL East based on h2h record against the Mets…Mets have a Wild Card play-in game)
4. Lose out to the Mets but tie for the Wild Card (at least one play-in game, maybe more depending on the number of teams)
5. Win the wild card outright (Go West, Phillies and beat the shit out of the Diamondbacks or Pads or Colorado…who cares, they all suck)

If the Phillies go 0-3 against Washington, we need one of the following:
- Mets go 0-3 as well. They could not win the wild card.

If the Phillies go 1-2 against Washington, we need one of the following:
- The Mets go 0-3, Phillies win East.
- Mets go 1-2, Phillies play Mets for East title.
- Wild Card: Colorado can get no more than one win and the Pads need to lose all 3 at Milwaukee. The picture is not a rosy one. I don’t recommend this situation.

If the Phillies go 2-1 against Washington, we need one of the following:
-Mets go 1-2, or 0-3. Phillies win division
-Padres go 1-2 or 0-3 AND Colorado goes 2-1 or worse.

If the Phillies win two games this weekend, they most likely end up in a tie for the Wild Card, at best. However, that is not a bad thing…I would prefer it. Have the Mets tie the Phillies and then also tie for the Wild Card…MLB has a unique tie breaker here. They go to a head-to-head record in this situation to decide the division title. Otherwise, they would put the division game play-in loser at a disadvantage, and the third or fourth team at an advantage since they would be rested and less traveled. I like this scenario in a division tie situation because it does not require the Phillies to play in any play-in games…say that shit out loud 5 times.

Phillies win 3 games…simple. They make the playoffs. In order to not make the playoffs, they would need the Mets to go 3-0 and then beat them in Philadelphia in the playoff game for the division. That is not happening…we own the Mets right now. Paul LoDuca can talk more in the locker room about their meltdown…you are the biggest asshole in baseball LoDuca…put you, Milton Bradley and Scott Olsen on a deserted island and see who survives that ‘roid rage party.

Bottom line…win tonight, and then let’s worry about everyone else. WIN TONIGHT…There has not been a bigger game for the Phillies since Game 6 of the ’93 Series. And guess what…Joe Carter does not play for the Washington Nationals.

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