City of Pain

At the beginning of June, Pat Burrell had that look on his face. No, not the “I just cheated on my fiancée for the fourth time this week with a 22 year old Asian stripper” look we’ve all seen before. It was the “Am I really a major league baseball player anymore” look he has after another 0 for 4 performance the night before. He’s getting booed every time he steps foot on the field. He is getting called third strikes against him, then reacting by standing in the batter’s box with that dull stare off into the center city skyline. He has officially become Pat Burrell once again. He’s lived in a black and white world these past few years. The darkest parts of his days are usually during the games in which he struggles, the brightest are what happens after hours. Now this is pure speculation here (wink, wink), but tales of Burrell’s nightlife activity are stuff of legend around these parts. The women, the booze, the blackout drunk evenings hiding from his fiancée…..this is the Pat Burrell that Philadelphians have secretly come to enjoy. He’s always been an enigma in this town. He seems quiet, never shows a lot of emotion on the field, occasionally has an “oh my god why can’t this guy do this more often” type of game, and for some ungodly reason wants to stay here and be the punch line in every bad Phillies joke. And hell, at this point if he has a good game it’s just a bonus. This is the life he has chosen, this is the city he has repeatedly said he wants to play in (and by ‘play in’ maybe he means something other than baseball), and this is just what we as fans have accepted the past few years. We don’t even know if the talent is there anymore. We don’t understand how you can be the #1 player picked in the draft, be the MVP of the College World Series, win the equivalent of the MVP in all of college, and then fall so far. But we deal with it, and we know we have to deal with it until after the 2008 season when Burrell becomes a free agent.

But then, something happened.

Pat Burrell became arguably the best player in the National League. And he started to earn the $13.25 million dollars the Phillies are paying him this season.

You can throw out of the stats in the world and eventually you’re going to find some that make any baseball player look good. In the case of Pat Burrell, there isn’t a batting statistic of his (since July 2nd when this all turned around) that doesn’t make him look good. On the surface, since July 2nd Burrell stats are easy to appreciate. Burrell is batting .360 with 16 home runs and 45 RBI. He also raised his batting average from .201 to .266. But a quick glance under the surface shows that Burrell may be having his best season…..ever.

Burrell’s best season came in 2002, where he was in his third year with the Phillies and hit .282, 37 HRs, 116 RBIs, 39 doubles, 96 runs, 89 walks, and a .544 slugging percentage. He did all of this in 586 at-bats.

This season, and remember Burrell did not get significant playing time a few weeks in June, he is projected to finish at .266, 32 HRs, 103 RBIs, 26 doubles, 78 runs, 112 walks, and a .525 slugging percentage. He will theoretically do all of this in 471 at bats….115 less than he had in his 2002 season. That’s the equivalent of playing about 24 more games. If you project this season’s stats over 586 at-bats, Burrell finishes with an average most likely around .275, 40 HRs, 128 RBIs, 32 doubles, 97 runs, and 122 walks. With the exception of his doubles, these would all be career highs. In 2002, Burrell walked 11% of the time he stepped into the batter’s box. Last season that number jumped to 17%, and this season he is walking a staggering 19% of the time he steps up to the plate. It is clear that minus one month of the season (and yes I realize this is not a minor statement), Pat Burrell is most likely your NL MVP. So the question we can now ask is…..

….is Pat Burrell now tradable? Has he done enough since July 2nd to increase his attractiveness to other suitors? Is there an AL team that would trade for him and make him their DH? Would the Phillies have to pick up any of the contract? What is Burrell’s true value to the Phillies at this point? If you know he is most likely gone after the 2008 season, wouldn’t it be the smart move to see if you can get something for him now, or is it worth the risk to take a chance that he has a similar season next year? Would Burrell waive his no-trade clause for any team? Is Burrell worth a #3 starter? Are you ok with an outfield next year of Rowand, Victorino, Bourn, and Werth?

If other teams show interest and you are Pat Gillick, what do you do and what are your requirements for accepting a trade?

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